Barack Obama was declared the winner of the 2008 presidential election at just 10:17 p.m. His reelection four years later took a little longer, but it was called at 11:27. Those caught with enough election fever stayed awake until 2:30 four years ago to hear Donald Trump being the projected winner.

What about today? Will it be an early night a la Obama or a late one because, you know, Trump?

It depends. If it’s early it’s likely because Joe Biden snapped it up by taking states Trump needs to win, and making Trump the first one-term president in three decades. If it drags on, that means Trump is holding the states he needs to win and can pull a huge upset, polls be scrammed.

The reason is simple: The must-win states for Trump are mostly on the East Coast where polls close at 9 p.m. Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio — lose one or two and it’s a President Biden. For Biden to put it away early, he needs to win Pennsylvania to give him 270 Electoral College votes, or Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio, or Florida. You get the picture.

If results are not in early, attention will then turn to the Midwestern states of Arizona, Texas, Minnesota and Nevada. But Trump’s chances of winning go up dramatically if we need to wait for that.